Philippines, Indonesia: Exceeded Growth Expectations

by silent sinner

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo signing the Coral Triangle Initiative Summit in Manado, North Sulawesi, Indonesia, Friday, May 15, 2009. Coral Triangle Initiative is a grouping of six Asian countries comprising one of the world’s richest marine areas.

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo signing the Coral Triangle Initiative Summit in Manado, North Sulawesi, Indonesia, Friday, May 15, 2009. Coral Triangle Initiative is a grouping of six Asian countries comprising one of the world’s richest marine areas.

MANILA, Philippines – Global investment bank Goldman Sachs said the Philippines performed better than most of the next 11 emerging economies (N-11) during the global crisis.

“Within the N-11, Indonesia and the Philippines have positively surprised,” Goldman Sachs said in its latest Global Economics Paper.

The N-11 and the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) are 2 terms coined by Goldman Sachs several years ago. The investment bank considers the BRIC as the fastest-growing developing economies, and the N-11 as the ones “worth keeping an eye on” outside of the BRIC.

Aside from the Philippines and Indonesia, other members of the N-11 include Bangladesh, Egypt, Korea, Turkey, Nigeria, Vietnam, Iran, Pakistan, and Mexico.

Goldman Sachs said the Philippines exceeded growth expectations, along with China, Brazil, India, and Indonesia. On the other hand, countries which performed in line with the investment bank’s projections include Bangladesh, Egypt, Korea, Turkey, Nigeria, and Vietnam.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs said Iran, Pakistan, and Mexico have “largely disappointed” its expectations.

Stronger rebounds

While the BRIC and N-11 saw sharper contractions than developed countries in general, Goldman Sachs said these economies also posted stronger rebounds. The investment bank grouped the BRIC and the N-11 in terms of the differentiation, with the Philippines still at the top tier.

“This group of winners includes Brazil, China, India, Egypt, Indonesia, and the Philippines. They have experienced a relatively mild slowdown, and have shown an impressive rebound in growth and activity this year.”

In the middle group are Korea, Nigeria, Turkey, and Vietnam, which have also seen impressive rebounds despite relatively sharp contractions, Goldman Sachs said.

Meanwhile, Iran, Mexico, Pakistan, and Russia belong to the bottom level given the depth of their recessions and sluggishness of recoveries.

“While overall the BRICs and N-11 saw much sharper contractions than the developed countries, they also saw much stronger rebounds,” Goldman Sachs said.

World growth

Since 2007, Goldman Sachs said the BRIC has contributed 45% of world growth, while the N-11 countries account for 11%. The Group of 7 (G7), on the other hand, only contributed 20% in the past 2 years.

The G7, a group of industrialized nations, includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States.

“While the 2000-2006 contribution to global growth was almost equally split between the developed and developing world, the last 2 years saw the trend change sharply, with the divergence mainly driven by the BRICs,” Goldman Sachs said.

On an individual country basis, Goldman Sachs said all of the BRICs and 7 of the N-11 (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, Philippines, and Vietnam) contributed more to world growth in 2007 to 2008 than from 2000 to 2006.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: